Australia, England, and South Africa have already booked their tickets to the semi-finals of the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup 2025. The last remaining place will be decided between India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka as the group stage nears its climax.
Thursday’s India vs New Zealand encounter could be the decisive turning point in shaping the final semi-final lineup.
India’s Qualification Path
India currently has 4 points and a +0.526 NRR. If they manage to win both their remaining fixtures against New Zealand and Bangladesh, their qualification will be sealed.
Even a single win over the White Ferns on Thursday could be enough to advance, regardless of the result against Bangladesh. A win against New Zealand and a loss in the final game would still leave India on six points — a total that no other contender can match with the same number of wins.
If India suffers a defeat against New Zealand but beats Bangladesh, they’ll have to rely on England toppling the White Ferns on the final day to stay alive. Losing both matches would end India’s campaign.
New Zealand’s Qualification Path
The White Ferns also hold 4 points, but their -0.245 NRR makes their task slightly tougher. If they register wins over both India and England, they will advance comfortably to the semis with eight points.
If they beat India but fall to England, they’ll need Bangladesh to defeat India and hope their net run rate finishes ahead of Sri Lanka (or Pakistan to beat Sri Lanka).
Sri Lanka’s Qualification Path
Sri Lanka sits level on 4 points but has a -1.035 NRR. To remain in the hunt, they must defeat Pakistan in their last league game.
On top of that, they need India to lose both matches, New Zealand to fall to England, and their net run rate to surpass that of the Kiwis.
How the Tie-Break Works
If multiple teams end up on the same number of points, the rankings will first depend on total wins. If those are equal, net run rate (NRR) comes into play and if still level, the head-to-head result decides the order. Should that also fail, original league seeding will determine the standings.
That means India would own the tiebreak over New Zealand, and potentially Sri Lanka, with a win over the White Ferns and a loss to Bangladesh.
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